The pace of growth may finally be slowing down even though the foreclosure crisis is not over.  RealtyTrac Inc. stated that the number of US households facing foreclosure in February grew by 6% compared to the year.  This was the smallest annual increase in 4 years the foreclosures declined on a monthly and yearly basis in the hardest hit states of Arizona, Carolina in Nevada and grew rapidly in Florida.

More than 308,000 households, or one in every 418 homes, received a foreclosure-related notice, the Irvine, Calif.-based foreclosure listings company reported. That was down more than 2 percent from January

Still, fears remain about the hundreds of thousands of homeowners who are still being evaluated for help under loan modification programs. Many analysts say most of those borrowers will eventually lose their homes, sparking a new round of foreclosures later this year.

“It’s premature to declare victory just yet,” said Rick Sharga, a RealtyTrac senior vice president. He did, however, allow that, “If this is the beginning of a slowdown in growth rates, that would be a good thing.”

Banks repossessed nearly 79,000 homes last month, down 10 percent from January but still up 6 percent from February 2009.

The RealtyTrac report follows an encouraging report last month from the Mortgage Bankers Association. It said the percentage of borrowers who had missed just one payment on their home loans fell to 3.6% in the October to December quarter, down from 3.8% in the third quarter.

While that was a surprising piece of positive news, foreclosures were still at record high levels. The number of borrowers who have either missed a payment or are in foreclosure was at 15%.

A record 2.8 million households were threatened with foreclosure last year, RealtyTrac said, and the number is expected to rise to more than 3 million homes this year.

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The foreclosure crisis forced the federal government and several states to come up with plans to prolong the process so delinquent borrowers can try to find help. But those efforts have barely dented the problem. Case in point: The Obama administration’s $75 billion foreclosure prevention program has helped only 116,300 homeowners in the past year.

After a year of trying to enroll homeowners in the Obama administration’s program, housing counselors are feeling deflated.

At many of the 100 mortgage companies charged with running the program, employees still “don’t really know what the guidelines are — or refuse to adhere” to them, said Cheryl Cassell, manager of housing counseling at the National Community Reinvestment Coalition, a community group in Washington.

Foreclosed homes are typically sold at steep discounts, lowering the value of surrounding properties. Cities lose property tax dollars from homes that sit empty and lower property values.

Economic woes, such as unemployment or reduced income, are expected to be the main catalysts for foreclosures this year. Initially, lax lending standards were the culprit, but homeowners with good credit who took out conventional, fixed-rate loans are the fastest growing group of foreclosures.

Among states, Nevada posted the nation’s highest foreclosure rate, though foreclosures there were down 7% from January and down more than 30% from a year earlier. It was followed by Arizona, Florida, California and Michigan. Rounding out the top 10 were Utah, Idaho, Illinois, Georgia and Maryland.

In February, the highest for closure rate of metro areas was Las Vegas.  Foreclosures were down from 9% from a month earlier even though 1 in every 90 homes received for closure filing.  Cape Coral-Fort Myers area in Florida was the second highest hit area closures that was up 31% from January.  California metro areas of Modesto, Riverside, San Bernardino, Ontario and Stockton also top the list of closure hotspots.

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My Take: I am glad foreclosures are down or at least slowing down.  That means more people are able to keep their homes.  I think that is wonderful.  Now maybe they can do a little home improvement and make their home even better than it was, just in case.

They might start with new wooden exterior doors to make their home appear fresh and new.  Any real estate agent can tell you that front door is the first thing potential buyers see and did make the first impression.  Putting in a new front entry door before selling is a good thing.  And maybe they can turn to the inside and do some more remodeling.

If they are smart, they will have a contractor come out that utilizes PDF takeoff so they can get an estimate right away.  It usually comes with construction cost estimating software and helps a contractor provide an estimate on the spot.  Maybe this remodeling they are doing is for a new member of the household.  They just might be sending out custom birth announcements soon.

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A warning has been given by the head of the FHA about increasing the minimum down payment required of borrowers that actually qualify for home loans.  These increased down payment requirements on loans backed by the agency could threaten the housing market.

FHA commissioner David Stevens said at a House hearing March 11 that his agency would insure 300,000 fewer loans per year if the mandatory down payment was hiked from the current level of 3.5% to 5%. That’s a 40% drop.

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The result would a potential “double-dip in housing prices,” because fewer people would qualify for loans, Stevens told lawmakers.

The FHA does not make loans, but offers insurance against their default. It has been insuring roughly 30 percent of new loans, and is the largest backer of mortgages to first-time buyers.

The agency said in January it would raise fees and tighten lending standards to shore up its strapped finances in hopes of avoiding a taxpayer bailout. The government agency, which has faced rising losses from foreclosed homes, has seen its reserves sink below the minimum level required by Congress.

The agency, however, is facing pressure on both sides. Democrats fear that hiking standards too much will cut off many borrowers — particularly minorities — from being able to buy homes. Republicans, however, are pushing for even tighter standards than the agency has proposed — such as the 5 percent down payment requirement.

“The question now is: Have we gone far enough?” said Rep Scott Garrett, R-N.J.

Under the proposed changes, many of which need to be approved by Congress, homebuyers would pay an upfront mortgage insurance premium of 2.25% of the total loan amount. That’s an increase from the current level of 1.75%. A borrower taking out a $200,000 mortgage would pay a $4,500 fee, for example, rather than the current fee of $3,500.

A credit score of above 580 score may not have any problems, but below a credit score of 580 they will be required to put at least a 10% down payment.  This means that the credit score requirements also will be hiked. Many FHA lenders already require a higher score, but there had been no standard requirement across the program.

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My Take: Are these guys crazy?  They have people scrambling around trying to get a house for the first time and they want to restrict them.  It seems it people are going to have to talk to a Del Mar CA contracts attorney just to be able to understand the paperwork involved in buying a house.

Maybe real estate agent should actually be San Diego real estate lawyer.  That would definitely solve all the confusing problems.  I know back east they have some beautiful Grandview real estate that is for sale and people would love to have it if they could afford it.  If they start messing with down payment requirements, they definitely will not be able to order it or even the Palisades real estate that is available.

If they do change the down payment requirements, it means it more people will be going to Apple Valley MN property management to rent a house instead of buying.  Of course, those that can afford to purchase will be putting up their Eden Prairie MN homes for rent.  At least somebody will make money off the situation.

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According to a seasonally adjusted report by the Commerce Department, newly constructed home sales rose for the fifth straight month in August.  They inched up 0.7% from July, which is 3.4% lower than a year ago.  According to this seasonally adjusted annual rate, 429,000 more homes were sold and that is an increase from a downwardly reading of 426,000 in July.

August sales came in well below economists’ consensus estimate of 440,000, compiled by Briefing.com  New home sales were also 3.4% below August 2008, when the estimate stood at a 444,000 annual rate.  The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new home inventory at the end of August was 262,000, which represents a 7.3-month supply at the current sales rate.

“Price cuts and dramatic cutbacks in home construction are clearing out inventory in a big way,” said Mike Larson, analyst at Weiss Research, Inc., in a research note. “We now have the fewest new homes for sale in this country since November 1992.”

In fact, supply is almost at the point where prices “can be expected to be broadly stable,” said High Frequency Economics analyst Ian Shepherdson in a research note.

Solving the appraisal problem

In recent months, plunging mortgage rates have helped draw buyers into the market. Though rates have rebounded slightly to 5.36% for a 30-year fixed mortgage, levels are still well below last year’s rates, which stood at 6.32% in August 2008.  The housing market has also seen a boost from an $8,000 tax credit for qualified first-time home buyers. That credit is currently slated to expire December 1.

But it is not all good news in the housing market. In a separate report, the National Association of Realtors said that August sales of previously-owned homes fell 2.7% from July to 5.1 million units, well below analyst expectations of 5.35 million.

Where homes are selling?  Sales in the West jumped by 12.1% to 120,000 homes, from 107,000 in July. Activity in the South stayed flat at 224,000 units.  The Northeast saw new home sales plunge 16.3% to 36,000, from 43,000 the previous month. Midwestern sales also fell, by 5.8% to 49,000.

Median and average prices: The median sales price of new homes fell significantly, to $195,200, from a revised $215,600 in July. The average price sank to $256,800 in August from $273,100.

“With more first-time buyers in the market than usual, the published median price data will likely keep falling,” he said.

“The big question is, what happens after the first-time buyer tax credit expires?”

That is one of the top questions right now.  Many of the new homes being sold are smaller residences being sold first-time buyers in the median prices do not take into consideration this as Shepherdson noted.  However, as of this posting there is an effort to extend the first-time buyer tax credit into next year and this could have a drastic change on the median prices of newly constructed homes next year.

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My Take: I am utterly confused by this article.  However, it seems interesting at the same time.  I think it’s all the information it was thrown into something that I think could’ve been just said in a few words like “new home sales are on the rise”.  I think that is all the average person really wants to know, besides when the price is still low or not.

I guess it would not make any difference whether it was Kentucky or Houston real estate that the article were talking about as long as it indicates that new home sales are rising.  But, what about the foreclosures in Houston?  Are they reducing?  What about Kentucky?  What about the rest of the country?  I know you can get KY refinancing when you purchase a Kentucky home.  There is a company that has Louisville mortgage loan programs available to help people avoid foreclosure.

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An indication of a slower pace of the economic recovery is a reduction in the sales of previously owned homes in the United States that was unexpected in four months as of August.  However, this was overshadowed by David indicating a pall in the number of new jobless benefit claims in the US in September.  At the same time, sector banks in Europe and the US scaled-back their massive injections of dollars into the banking system as a markets stabilize after the worst global financial crisis since the “Great Depression”

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said sales of existing U.S. homes fell 2.7% to an annual rate of 5.10 million units, disappointing market expectations for a rise to a 5.35 million unit pace. That was the first fall since April.

Another report from the U.S. Labor Department showed new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell 21,000 to a seasonally adjusted 530,000 last week. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected initial claims to rise to 550,000.

The housing report did little to change views that the economy is recovering from its worst recession in 70 years but raised doubts about how long the rebound will last.

“Everyone knows the third quarter (economic growth) is going to be very good, the question is how sustainable is this recovery and will the housing market be able to fly on its own once the emergency government aid is removed,” said Zach Pandl, an economist at Nomura Securities International in New York.

The Federal Reserve, the U.S. central bank, on September 23 acknowledged activity had picked up and noted the improvement in the housing sector when it left its key overnight lending rate near zero.

A top White House economic adviser, Christina Romer, said on September 24 the U.S. economy was “back from the brink”, but warned policy-makers against removing fiscal and monetary stimulus too quickly.

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Stocks on Wall Street dropped on the homes report and worries that authorities might be curbing stimulus too soon. Government bond yields fell as the data strengthened perceptions the economic recovery could falter once stimulus from government spending fades.  Leaders of the G20 group of rich and developing nations were gathering in Pittsburgh to discuss ways of rebalancing the world economy to prevent another banking crisis and recession.

SELF-SUSTAINING RECOVERY SOUGHT

U.S. home sales have been boosted in recent months by an $8,000 government tax credit for first-time buyers and an improving economic picture as well as the lowest prices and mortgage rates in decades.  The tax credit expires at the end of November and NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said the industry group was lobbying to have it extended into next year to avoid what he called a double-dip recession for the housing market.

A housing sector collapse was the main force behind the recession, which started in December 2007.

“The housing market is close to reaching a point of self-sustaining recovery. We are pushing for the extension of the tax credit so that we achieve this,” Yun told reporters.

The decline in August sales was a minor retreat after a strong rise in July, Yun said, and issues related to appraising home values could have led to delays or cancellations of contracts to buy homes. Pending sales contracts rose in July.  Despite the monthly decline, Augusts’ sales pace was the second-highest in 23 months, and sales of previously owned homes rose 3.4% compared to August last year.

The August national median home price of $177,700, off 12.5% from August last year, continued to be weighed down by distressed properties, which accounted for 31% of sales last month.

The inventory of existing homes for sale in August fell 10.8% to 3.62 million units from July, the NAR said. Augusts’ sales pace left the supply of previously owned homes on the market at 8.5 months from 9.3 months’ worth in July.

“Supply is getting close to the level of 7.5 months that has historically been consistent with stable house prices,” said Paul Dales, U.S. economist at Capital Economics in Toronto.

“That said, home sales remain 30% below their peak and the fall back in August illustrates that the recovery is going to be gradual and patchy rather than quick and firm.”

Stubbornly high unemployment continues to cast a pall over the strength of the economic recovery, which many economists agree is already under way.  While fewer workers submitted applications for unemployment benefits last week, analysts said initial claims had to fall below 500,000 to signal a recovery in the labor market.

“The labor market is stabilizing. We’re not quite down to the level that would signal that the economy is creating more jobs than it is losing, but we could reach that point later this year or early next year,” said Gary Thayer, a strategist at Wells Fargo Advisors in St. Louis, Missouri.

What is considered a better gauge of the labor market trends is the four-week moving average of new claims, which has dipped to 553,500 the lowest since January according to the Labor Department.  After the initial week of benefits, the number workers drawing unemployment after the first week of benefits fell 123,000 to 6.138 million in the week ending September 12.  Ace any decline in jobless claims on a weekly basis bodes well for September’s US nonfarm payrolls report that is due out October 2.

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My Take: Well, some good news comes out of Washington DC.  It would be nice if they extended the tax break for first-time homebuyers.  It might give those that are only dreaming about owning a house a chance to fulfill that dream.

That would mean that people who are utilizing suburban property management companies to maintain the houses they own would be able to sell one if they wanted to and get the money they are worth.  The recession has caused house prices to go down so many people have even turned to Maple Grove home rental services just to pay the mortgage on their first house because they could not sell it.

Another people seem to be going back to work, they will also be able to board the house that they have.  Everything gets me about unemployment is affected many people will not take the “shit” jobs because they do not pay enough.  The jobs I’m talking about or like McDonald’s or Burger King.  The idea is to have income and be able to put food on the table for your family, not the shame of having to take such a job.

Places like McDonald’s, Burger King, and Taco Bell also need to stop and think about who they are hiring.  I have seen many of these types of companies not hire someone because they are overqualified just to hire a teenager instead.  Yes, the overqualified person may not be there long, but you at least know that at the get-go.  A teenager, you never know how long they are going to stay and if they will even be able to do the work as directed.  I am sorry, I would rather hire 10 overqualified people then 3 teenagers.

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